DUN EDIN, Fla. — Alex Anthopoulos, the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, was talking Thursday about the unpredictability of inexperienced young players, so many of which — pitchers Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil and Henderson Alvarez, third baseman Brett Lawrie and outfielder Eric Thames — make up the core of his team and will ultimately decide its fate this season.
All of them, Anthopoulos noted, have had small samples of success, but there is not nearly enough track record to say for certain that they will forge the hoped-for baseball renaissance in Toronto.
“Other than (Jose) Bautista and (No. 1 starter Ricky) Romero, there’s a lot of volatility on our roster in that it’s a young type of team that’s hard to judge at this stage,” Anthopoulos said. “It takes guys three to four years of doing it before you know what you’re gonna get.”
Which brings us to young Ivan Nova, the Yankees’ pitching prodigy whom Anthopoulos just as easily could have been talking about. The 25-year-old Nova was about the Yankees’ most consistent starter after CC Sabathia last year, turning in a superb 16-4 rookie season in which he was undefeated (12-0 with a 3.25 ERA) in his last 16 starts and finished with a 3.70 ERA. But in his first two starts this spring, Nova has been anything but consistent, especially with the location of his bread-and-butter fastball, and while it’s only a total of 87 pitches in the Grapefruit League, it’s enough to warrant some concern about whether this may be another example of the “volatility” of youth.
On a much smaller scale, of course, the Yankees know from which Anthopoulous was talking. Just two years ago, Phil Hughes reeled off an 18-8 season, giving a hint that he was ready to begin fulfilling the lofty expectations that come from being a first-round draft pick. Then last year, Hughes showed up in camp overweight and mysteriously devoid of velocity and he never got it back. He may be penciled in as the No. 5 starter, but by no means do the Yankees yet know what they’ve got with him.
Against the Blue Jays on Thursday, Nova pitched a neat and efficient 1-2-3 first inning, and a fairly ugly second in which he gave up a leadoff double to Adam Lind, a “Baltimore chop” single to Lawrie, an RBI groundout to Colby Rasmus and then a somewhat wind-aided two-run homer after getting behind 2-0 on Toronto’s strikeout-prone catcher J.P. Arencibia. He gave up another run the next inning on three straight hits by Kelly Johnson, Bautista and Lind, and at the end of the day, his ERA stood at 11.57 for 2 2 / 3 innings of work.
“My arm feels good, I just had location problems with my fastball,” Nova said.
“I’ve just gotta keep fighting. I know I’m gonna get it back.”
In Joe Girardi’s mind, it’s way too early for any concerns about Nova regressing in his sophomore season. “His stuff is okay. I saw velocity out there — 95,” the manager said.
And pitching coach Larry Rothschild agreed, although he seemed a bit perturbed.
“Getting behind with your fastball is not a real good formula for success,” Rothschild said. “He knew he had a good fastball, but, with young guys who feel that way, they a lot of times don’t pitch as much with what they have, using their other pitches.”
So everyone seemed to be in agreement that Nova’s location problems are nothing more than the rustiness of early spring. At the same time, however, no one talks about the importance of Nova to the rotation, for all his youth and inexperience. With the uncertainty of Hughes, the work-in-progress that is Michael Pineda and the unfamiliarity of Hiroki Kuroda with the American League East, whether the Yankees like it or not, Nova projects as their No. 2 starter off what he accomplished last season.
As such, in their case a “volatility” in the wrong direction on Nova’s part could have the same devastating effect as struggles by two or three of Anthopoulos’ young core players. But unlike Anthopoulos, the Yankees can’t afford to wait three or four years to find out what they’ve really got in Nova.
bmadden@nydailynews.com
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